Download Analyzing Wimbledon: The Power of Statistics by Franc Klaassen PDF

By Franc Klaassen

The sport of tennis increases many questions which are of curiosity to a statistician. Is it actual that starting to serve in a suite provides a bonus? Are new balls a bonus? Is the 7th online game in a suite really very important? Are most sensible avid gamers extra reliable than different avid gamers? Do actual champions win the massive issues? those and lots of different questions are formulated as "hypotheses" and established statistically.

Analyzing Wimbledon additionally discusses how the result of a fit should be estimated (even whereas the fit is in progress), which issues are very important and which aren't, how you can opt for an optimum carrier approach, and even if "winning temper" truly exists in tennis. geared toward readers with a few wisdom of arithmetic and records, the ebook makes use of tennis (Wimbledon specifically) as a automobile to demonstrate the facility and sweetness of statistical reasoning.

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Extra info for Analyzing Wimbledon: The Power of Statistics

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This is because there are more final (third) sets, about 30%, but fewer of these are long, about 10%. For a statistician to investigate an extreme event such as the Isner-Mahut match, the difficulty lies in the fact that very few observations are available. Very long matches are very rare. In such a situation we need more theory and more structure to produce credible results. Below we provide a mathematical analysis with a minimum of empirical observations. Still, the analysis allows us to make statements about how special the Isner-Mahut match was.

4%. In the second set Clijsters won the first three games, but at 5-2 she lost three consecutive games. 7%. But Clijsters held her service game, as did Williams thereafter. The tiebreak was convincingly won 7-2 by Clijsters. 3%. Williams served first in the set and won her first service game. In the second game Clijsters was 0-30 and 30-40 behind, making Williams the favorite to win the match, but Clijsters held serve. At 1-1 Williams lost her service game. 7%. When Williams won the first point on her service in the next game, the match was completely balanced.

In order to provide a comparison we transformed the Betfair data to our format, thus obtaining the market’s winning probability at the beginning of each point. 1 (dark line) and adds the Betfair probabilities (light line). The correspon- Forecasting Prob. 6: Model (dark) and Betfair (light) profiles, Federer-Nadal at Wimbledon 2008 dence is striking, in fact so striking that the only credible explanation is that Betfair traders and their computers are using our model or a model very similar to ours.

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