By Peter L. Bernstein
A company Week, ny instances company, and united states at the present time Bestseller
"Ambitious and readable . . . an enticing advent to the oddsmakers, whom Bernstein regards as actual humanists supporting to unlock mankind from the choke holds of superstition and fatalism." -The ny Times
"An terribly unique and informative book." -The Wall highway Journal
"A full of life panoramic publication . . . opposed to the Gods units up an bold premise after which grants on it." -Business Week
"Deserves to be, and absolutely should be, generally read." -The Economist
"[A] not easy e-book, person who might switch endlessly the best way humans take into consideration the world." -Worth
"No one else can have written a e-book of such important value with lots appeal and excitement." -Robert Heilbroner writer, The Worldly Philosophers
"With his brilliant wisdom of the heritage and present manifestations of threat, Peter Bernstein brings us opposed to the Gods. not anything love it will pop out of the monetary global this 12 months or ever. I converse rigorously: not anyone should still pass over it." -John Kenneth Galbraith Professor of Economics Emeritus, Harvard University
during this particular exploration of the position of probability in our society, Peter Bernstein argues that the inspiration of bringing threat less than keep an eye on is likely one of the critical principles that distinguishes sleek occasions from the far away earlier. opposed to the Gods chronicles the extraordinary highbrow event that liberated humanity from oracles and soothsayers by way of the strong instruments of threat administration which are on hand to us today.
"An super readable heritage of risk." -Barron's
"Fascinating . . . this difficult quantity might help you know the uncertainties that each investor needs to face." -Money
"A singular achievement." -Times Literary Supplement
"There's a starting to be marketplace for savants who can render the recondite intelligibly-witness Stephen Jay Gould (natural history), Oliver Sacks (disease), Richard Dawkins (heredity), James Gleick (physics), Paul Krugman (economics)-and Bernstein could mingle good of their company." -The Australian
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Extra info for Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk
2. Two stimulating commentaries on the Fibonacci numbers are Garland, 1987, and Hoffer, 1975. The examples here are drawn from those two sources. 3. The background material presented here comes primarily from Hogben, 1968, Chapter I. 4. See Hogben, 1968, p. 35; also Eves, 1983, Chapter I. 5. See Hogben, 1968, p. 36 and pp. 246–250. 6. The background material on Diophantus is from Turnbull, 1951, p. 113. 7. , p. 110. 8. , p. 111. 62 9. See Hogben, 1968, pp. 244–246. 10. From Newman, 1988a, p. 433.
The first systematic efforts to measure and count were undertaken some ten thousand years before the birth of Christ. 3 It was then that humans settled down to grow food in the valleys washed by such great rivers as the Tigris and the Euphrates, the Nile, the Indus, the Yangtse, the Mississippi, and the Amazon. The rivers soon became highways for trade and travel, eventually leading the more venturesome people to the oceans and seas into which the rivers emptied. To travelers ranging over longer and longer distances, calendar time, navigation, and geography mattered a great deal and these factors required ever more precise computations.
150. 4. This entire paragraph is from Bolen, 1976. 41 5. Excellent background on all this may be found in David, 1962, pp. 2–21. 6. See David, 1962, p. 34. 7. Hayano, 1982. 8. Johnson, 1995. 9. See David, p. 2. 10. Sambursky, 1956, p. 36. 11. , p. 37. 12. , pp. 36–40. 13. Rabinovitch, 1969. 14. Frankfort, 1956; quoted in Heilbroner, 1995, p. 23. See also David, 1962, pp. 21–26. 15. See Eves, 1983, p. 136. 42 Chapter 2 As Easy as I, II, III Without numbers, there are no odds and no probabilities; without odds and probabilities, the only way to deal with risk is to appeal to the gods and the fates.